Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Typhoon Nangka continues on course towards Japan: AIR analysis

The Insurance Journal: Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide has released an analysis of Typhoon Nangka, which is currently a Category 3 storm “with a central pressure of 950 mb and maximum 10-minute sustained wind speeds of 80 knots (~106 mph 1-minute sustained). The storm is located approximately 1,250 km (775 miles) from Iwakuni, Japan, Nangka, and is moving northward at 15 km/h (9 mph).

“Once the intensity of a Category 4 Super Typhoon, Nangka has weakened and maintained its current intensity for the last 72 hours,” said Dr. Anna Trevino, scientist at AIR Worldwide. “It is located in a favorable environment with very little vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, but nearby dry air is being wrapped into the center, preventing further convective growth and intensification.

 “High pressure to the northeast is steering Nangka toward Japan, and the typhoon is forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 or weak Category 3 storm between the isla
nds of Kyushu and Shikoku Thursday (local time) and rapidly weaken. Because landfall is not for at least 48 hours, there is uncertainty in the intensity of the storm at landfall. This is the first typhoon landfall in Mainland Japan has seen in 2015, with the exception of Typhoon Noul, which quickly weakened before making landfall as an extratropical storm in May.”

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Nangka is expected to slightly strengthen over warm ocean waters during the next two days before landfall, causing rough seas, anticipated to impact shipping....

Typhoon Nangka on July 13, 2015, via NASA

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